On Wednesday, the LA Times reported the most ridiculously absurd story about the Pakistani Taliban. According to the news agency, juice bars in Lahore have been bombed after claims by militants that they are “dens of immorality” because men and women can meet and talk to one another (oh my!). The LA Times wrote, “Attacks on fresh juice bars in Lahore late last year centered on the Garhi Shahu neighborhood,” where many Afghans and Uzbeks have settled. The owner of Dasko Juice told the Times, “Basically it’s just a place where girls and boys come and drink juice. These people try and portray us as immoral, but it’s not true. They’re just sitting and talking, but that’s a threat to them.”
The story conjured up many other examples of how Islamist militants have used their convoluted interpretation of Islam to overpower Pakistan – from the Lal Masjid “moral policewomen” wielding batons and publicly burning DVDs to the public flogging of young girls and banning of women from the marketplace in Swat. A recent poll by World Public Opinion.Org, though, shows that most Pakistanis disagree with such views. According to the poll, which surveyed 1,000 people across the country from May 17 – May 28, 2009 [margin of error is +/- 3.2%], 75% said they believe Sharia law allows women to work, [only 24% said this was not allowed under Islam]. An even larger 83% said Sharia permits girls’ schooling. In comparison, 81% of respondents felt the Pakistani Taliban, if they were allowed control over an area, would not allow women to work, while an equally overwhelming 81% believed they would not allow girls to go to school, [see the graph below].
The results above ultimately show that the majority of polled Pakistanis disagree with the Pakistani Taliban’s interpretation of Sharia. In fact, 81% now see the activities of the Taliban as a critical threat, compared to 34% of those polled in September 2007. Moreover, reported World Public Opinion, Pakistanis “show far less confidence in the potential for the Pakistani Taliban to govern effectively than they do for the government,” [for example, 56% felt the government would provide timely and effective justice in the courts, versus the 14% who chose the Taliban]. At the same time, the poll showed that many people also have low confidence in the government, [26% voted both/neither to the above question]. Therefore, although many Pakistanis don’t prescribe to the same brand of Sharia as the Taliban and most feel they don’t have the competence to govern, this does not necessarily mean they feel the government will do a better job in its wake. The state must therefore work to not only instill confidence in the public, but improve governance all together.
I went to an event yesterday where World Public Opinion’s Clay Ramsay presented these findings and RAND Corporation’s Christine Fair and Brookings’ Stephen Cohen commented on the results. Fair also provided a provincial breakdown of the results, but noted that in Pakistan, “there is more variation within provinces than between provinces.” She also related several anecdotes from when she trained the enumerators in Pakistan [those who carried out the 1,000 face-to-face interviews for the survey]. Her and her colleague’s goal, she said, was to eliminate the “don’t knows” that often crop up in survey results, especially with questions related to Al Qaeda. According to Fair, most enumerators didn’t even know what Al Qaeda was, [one woman in a training even thought it was a group associated with Hamid Karzai's government] so the training of the enumerators was important in order for them could to properly communicate questions to the respondents.
Fair’s talk was significant because she contextualized the results of the World Public Opinion findings, noting the survey was taken [May 2009] soon after Taliban militants had moved into Buner, just 60 miles from the capital. She said the development ultimately changed the view of people in Pakistan, especially the NWFP and Punjab, and more began to view the Taliban as a critical threat. The survey, therefore, was a reflection of this evolving sentiment, with most supporting the military’s campaign against the militants, [see below chart].
In a related email exchange with Fair, she indicated to me that the World Public Opinion sample was not drawn to be statistically representative at the provincial level, [a new poll, which will survey 6000 people, she said, should be more reliable in shedding light on these inter-provincial differences]. She noted the inter-provincial differences she discussed in her talk “were not meant to dilate upon any point estimate in particular, rather to remind folks that we can’t think of “Pakistani public opinion” because there are many publics.”
The issue of Pakistani public opinion was also raised by Stephen Cohen, who felt that there is no such thing as “Pakistani public opinion,” a point that I feel is important to debate on this forum. Do you think a national Pakistani identity exists, or is it something created or forced by these polls? And, if you don’t agree, are identities formed in Pakistan along provincial lines? In terms of young Pakistanis, do you think that new media platforms like Facebook, Twitter, and blogs can be instrumental in forming nationalist sentiment?
Interesting results.
Check out this article in the International Herald Tribune today. Talks about how hard line Islamist charities are trying to take advantage of the conditions that the IDPs are in and are trying to increase hostility towards the US. Sympathy with the taliban will always be a problem until the government is able to provide the people with BASIC needs.
(http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/02/world/asia/02aid.html?_r=1&hpw)
Great comment, thanks! I agree, there is currently a vacuum existing and if the government doesn’t come in to provide these services, then these Islamist groups will. Examples of that have been evident in several countries, including with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine. I remember traveling up to the earthquake-stricken areas in 2005 and seeing Jamaat-e-Islami camps alongside UN tents.
Actually what I didn’t raise in the post (because I was trying not to overwhelm you guys with statistics) was that 36% feel that Obama’s policies for Pakistan have been WORSE while only 32% feel it’s been better. It’s obvious then that the continued drone strikes under the Obama administration have been detrimental to anti-U.S. sentiment. And this poll was only taken in May 2009, I’d be interested to see how the recent strike that killed 45 ppl last week at a funeral impacted public opinion further.
[...] }); Read more at: CHUP! – Changing Up Pakistan afghans, batons, critical threat, fresh juice, girls and boys, immorality, juice bars, la [...]
Ofcourse there is a Pakistani identity. There are provincial differences but isn’t that the case in a lot of countries?
Two things:
1. I read about the poll as well, and one of the things you failed to mention was that more than 80% of the people polled viewed the US with distrust, despite Obama’s election, and that almost 90% were opposed to the US military presence in Afghanistan. So, while most Pakistanis are turning against the Taliban, they are also fundamentally opposed to the US being in their background and view the country with utmost distrust, if not distaste.
2. On Pakistani identity – no, I do not think Pakistani identity exists. It is only there in urban centers or, in cases, rural upper and central Punjab where every family has a son in the armed services. Beyond that, there is no concept of a Pakistani identity, because a lot of it has been manufactured by the state in the past 3 decades or so. As I am sure you know, in most of Balochistan the Pakistan flag and national anthem is frowned upon.
The youth of Pakistan can definitely play a part in creating, or at least helping create, a new sense of belonging and identity. It appears that the thing that will unite most Pakistanis, especially the youth, is their dissatisfaction with the status-quo rather than any lofty ideals of a glorious or imagined past.
Sohaib
Sohaib,
Yes, sorry I did mention the U.S. side of the poll in a comment above – I was trying to keep the poll a bit streamlined to opinion about the Taliban, but I realize it’s impossible NOT to discuss opinion of the U.S. because they are so tied together!
One thing that’s interesting that I somewhat disagreed with at the event: Stephen Cohen mentioned that people responded really favorably to Obama’s Dawn interview – when the President told Anwar Iqbal that he knew how to cook daal and enjoyed “Urdu poetry.” While Pakistanis I talked to (as well as myself) felt like it was all well and good for Obama to say he understood Pakistan because of his past experience in the country, but the interview came out the same day as the U.S. drone strike that killed 45 ppl at a funeral (ironically mourning people from a previous drone strike). The interview, in my opinion, seemed almost patronizing in light of that development.
I think a Pakistani identity CAN exist as well- that’s something we’ve seen during T20 World Cup. It’s also pretty evident among Pakistanis working or living abroad – but within the country, I think the country is so often decentralized that many Pakistanis will see themselves as Sindhi or Punjabi before they see themselves as Pakistani. Nationalist sentiment seems secondary on many issues, but I’d be open for others to weigh in on that.
When Chris Fair spoke about the inter-provisional differences, the most interesting difference was with Balochistan, actually. Respondents in the province seemed pretty ambivalent on all issues related to Al Qaeda and the Taliban threat, which is interesting.
I am really fascinated by what is going to happen in Pakistan. They should form a stronger bond with India, in my view–I don’t think India is looking to attack them; India is quite passive in fact–look at the (non)response to 26/11. Why not team up for the good of both countries? Haha, my father says I am a fool. But the Punjabis could get along well, maybe (I am not Punjabi). There are good people in Pakistan, probably most of them–so, why not team up with India against the small numbers of bad ones?
[...] – Changing Up Pakistan informs that according to the recent polls most Pakistanis view Talibans as critical threat to them. [...]
Nice post as always, and interesting results as far as the polls are concerned.
As far as identity is concerned I don’t think that new media will really play a part in it. Maybe to an extent that those who are perpetually connected, will, but they are in a minority. And I think it would be a rather superficial development. The only real way to create a Pakistani identity is to give back to each province what they put into the national cause, whether it be the economy or culture. Balochi’s are not too fond of the Pakistani state as a whole, and rightly so, as they have been neglected and exploited throughout Pak’s history. Once they have greater control and profits (which can lead to development etc) only then will they feel that Pakistan is in their interest. At the moment they have very little to gain from Pakistan. That is sad but true. The same goes for Sindh and Karachi. National identity can only be created once all of Pakistan’s provinces gain equal benefits from their land and inclusion in civil society and the military.
I suppose one could say that identities are created around provincial boundaries provided those provincial boundaries encapsulate like ethnicity and culture.
I don’t think that there is absolutely NO Pakistani identity as one comment mentioned above. There is definitely a Pakistani identity growing amongst people of the younger generation. And some of the older generation see Pakistan as a product of their hard work. Once again, not the majority.
But as long as ethnic and provincial divisions are exploited for political gain it will be harder to create this “national identity.” While provinces are exploited and neglected by the central government, politicians also use those divisions to further strengthen their base. That is also part of the problem.
Pakistan was founded on the basis or religion and this has been one of the few effective tools to unite people, and with rather unfortunate consequences. Religion is one thing that does tie people in Pakistan together, but that has not helped in creating a Pakistani identity.
Another precursor for a Pakistani identity is Pakistanis themselves knowing where the country wants to go. Does it want to become an Islamic state, does it want to be a theocracy or a secular democracy? Once Pakistanis stand up in large numbers and demand, work towards and fight for whichever one of these systems they want only then can a Pakistani identity be created around such a change.
National identity is a pretty confusing and elusive concept in Pakistan, but if Pakistan remains one nation, its citizens have no choice but to adopt a national identity if they want to see themselves and their neighbors prosper.
Ravit – That’s a great thought and I’m sure some of us in Pakistan would agree with you. However, the reality is that we can’t “team up” at this point and things are actually quite tense unfortunately. You and I may not have any aggression inside of us but there are many in our countries who are not as passive as you may think. Let’s wait and see what the future holds…