U.S.-Pakistan Intelligence Fall-out: Not So Groovy. Baby.
According to news outlets, “Pakistan has demanded that the U.S. steeply reduce the number of Central Intelligence Agency operatives and Special Operations forces working in Pakistan, and that it put on hold C.I.A. drone strikes aimed at militants in northwest Pakistan.”
Or as Jeremy Scahill (@jeremyscahill) tweeted, “You mean Pakistan tells the U.S. it must sharply reduce the number of times its operatives get caught.”
The demand is another sign of the unfolding fallout after the Raymond Davis debacle, and, as the NY Times noted, it signals “the near collapse of cooperation between the two testy allies.” Pakistan’s intelligence officials have asked about 335 American personnel – C.I.A. officers and contractors and Special Operations forces – to leave the country, about a 25 to 40 percent reduction in Pakistan’s U.S. presence.
The reductions were reportedly personally demanded by COAS Gen. Kayani, and were articulated during Pakistan’s intelligence chief Lt. Gen. Pasha‘s Monday meetings with CIA director Leon Panetta. According to New York Magazine, “The incident couldn’t have come at a worse time: The U.S. is frustrated at Pakistan’s seeming ineptness at tackling Al Qaeda and Taliban forces in the region. And Pakistan is distrustful of Washington, believing American officials are only interested in stripping the country of its nuclear arsenal.” Just last week, the White House’s assessment of the U.S. Afghanistan/Pakistan policy was released, painting a grim picture about Pakistan’s counterinsurgency efforts. According to Dawn, “The report alleged that Pakistan, along with Afghanistan, continues to be the operational base of Al Qaeda and its affiliates threatening global peace.”
Pakistan has dismissed the report’s claims, but at least to the outside world, the strain between the two nations is clear. In fact, CNN noted that these aforementioned “strained” relations dominated Monday’s “frank” discussion between Panetta and Pasha, though officials later assured reporters that the meetings had been productive, and that the relationship between the two services “remains on solid footing.”
It seems that the U.S. is at least trying to placate some of Pakistan’s demands, with U.S. Ambassador Munter stating that Washington is now reconsidering its drone program, a comment he made not during his speech, but during the Q&A Monday. While Munter did not note a time line in the review of the drone program, he did say – pretty significantly – “We have habits and tendencies that don’t work for us and get in the way [of its relationship with Pakistan].”
The Ambassador also called for a renewal of ties, noting, “We’ve had some difficult days in the recent past. But I’m here today to speak of opportunities in the future, not of problems of the past. Those problems have been acute in recent months, symbolized by the case of Raymond Davis.”
For those of you who think that the U.S. would actually halt the drone strikes in Pakistan – think again. As I’ve noted before, the drones are the best worst option to target militants that threaten U.S. interests. So a vague placation about a covert tactic that Pakistan has been very aware of should be taken with a grain of salt.
With intelligence relations, I always wonder how much of what is being said publicly truly reflects what is happening behind closed doors. Because let’s be honest – as much as the U.S. isn’t “happy” with Pakistan’s ability to battle Al Qaeda, Pakistan is, justifiably, pretty pissed off too. Even if Islamabad/GHQ have been complicit in the drone strike program and had knowledge of American personnel in the country, they don’t like being undermined in the eyes of their own population. Incidents like the Raymond Davis case and the March 17th drone strike that targeted a tribal jirga and killed large numbers of civilians and tribal fighters loyal to the Pakistani government in North Waziristan, are examples of that.
And for a report from the White House to claim that Pakistan is still not “doing enough,” despite the sustained deployment of 147,000 Pakistani troops and despite the numbers of Pakistani policemen, soldiers, and civilians that have lost their lives, comes across as callous, a far cry from “mutual respect and mutual understanding.”
After those debacles, our intelligence agency wants to be wooed. Some of the statements we’re seeing in the media or what is really happening behind closed doors could be examples of that. But will we see any changes in U.S. policy vis-a-vis Pakistan? We’ll see about that.
CHUP! - Changing Up Pakistan 
[…] I Spy Something Beginning with “BS” […]
This was bound to happen. Pakistan and US are very unnatural allies. Heck, better now than later. Atleast for India.
They’re very unnatural allies BECAUSE the U.S. has always had a strategic interest in Pakistan, particularly from a geostrategic perspective. This means that a true relationship has never really developed. Mutual respect and mutual understanding are all BS frankly. But at the same time, the U.S. and Pakistan cannot afford to “just quit” each other – too much at stake.
I think the US military is still willing to work with Pakistan, but the CIA has decided Pakistan is the enemy. This probably means fewer US personnel allowed to work out of the embassy in Islamabad, but *more* drone-strikes.
Anoop–a bit premature to view this as any sort of turning point–this zombie of an alliance has been on its “last legs” for the past decade!
I am not saying this is a turning point. I am saying this is the general trend for the past many years and it will not reverse.
US-Pakistan will be “allies” till the US fights in Af. After US pulls out, the gloves will come off. The sanctions will come, rather, resume then.
North Korea is a heavily militarized state supported by China, only. So will be Pakistan. Pakistan will have an added repulsion in the form of Terrorism from its soil for the World.
China is already there! Their troops are positioned along the LOC in Kashmir. KTV’s in Islamabad, baby!
http://www.zeenews.com/news698875.html
@Javed,
That was a little weird when Pakistan allowed its Sovereignty over its Eastern border to be diluted by the presence of the Chinese troops. Maybe its for Construction purposes, I dont know. Whatever it is, troops deployed in a Civilian area is a nightmarish scenario for the local populace, troops from another Country altogether deployed in the local populace is unheard of.
Atleast North Korea has the decency to use its own men to “guard” its borders.
2 things in which North Korea excels over Pakistan – Terrorism and Sovereignty.
I think it was Henry Kissinger who said there is only one thing worse than being a US enemy; it’s being a US ally!
The US seeks total compliance of others in all of its relationships, not an alliance.
And Uncle Sam is always surprised, or at least acts surprised, when the total compliance is not readily forthcoming.
But, no matter how strained or contentious, I don’t see any near-term end to this relationship because of the mutual need of both sides to continue it.
I agree.
Aww, c’mon–this is too defensive, I think.
Is the US seeking “total compliance” from S. Korea, Turkey, or Germany? I think not.
The whole problem w/ the US Alliance starts w/ the BS that Pakistan needs “strategic depth” in Afghanistan vs. the Indians.
(1) It is difficult to imagine a scenario where India invades Pakistan. What, they want our problems? Yeah, I know about ’71, but, seriously–are you *proud* of what W. Pak. troops were doing in E. Pak.? I’m not!
(2) If we *need* Afghanistan as depth to fight off India, best pack in at that stage of the conflict–the last of the Gucci class will already be on planes to Dubai and London and war will be over already.
Let’s try to be a mature country. Extremism must be put down mercilessly. Start with a “night of long knives” where the Islamists in ISI, gov’t and mullocracy are eliminated. If that’s not feasible, the country is dead anyway. Of course, I implicitly think it is dead–I live in the US and only feel safe in Islamabad and Rawalpindi. Certain actions involving my driver, people shooting and attendant hit-and-run in the attempt to escape in Karachi not admitted.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/americas/accused-in-india-massacre-claims-ties-to-pakistani-secret-service/article1981052/
The above article was reported in a Canadian newspaper. Related articles have also been published in US and Indian newspapers.
The article says that Rana and Headley (both accused in the 26/11 mumbai atttacks) agreed in a US trial that they were working on the orders of the Pakistani government and ISI.
This is shocking.
I really hope and pray for a day when we do not need american aid or money, i really wish we can work to extracting ourselves from this toxic relationship… this is a curse and a burden to us!
Pakistan is a terrorist country it supports terrorists for a long time against India so no other country will believe that country. The U.S. only supports Pakistan for its own benefits after that America will not support Pakistan in any circumstances.
Kalsoom
I find that argument baffling that Americans are after our nuclear program considering everything was being done under American nose right from the days of Ayub khan when the atomic energy commission was first established. Zia administration was clever enough to turn Soviet invasion into their advantage and forced Americans to ignore our nuclear ambition in return for assisting them in Afghanistan. It only came under serious international scrutiny when Pakistan was allegedly found helping other rogue states with the nuclear technology. All US needs to do is simply put a full stop to IMF, world bank, friends of Pakistan and other powerful entities keeping Pakistan on the life support system and we will eventually give in. Hence the argument laid by security establishment and its affiliated media to strip Pakistan of its nuclear capability by US is lame & based on myths and delusion.
US’s genuine concern is more about a radical infiltration within Pakistan military which may lead to the unthinkable presence of extremist elements within our nuclear hierarchy. Back in early 2000 two Pakistani scientists working in AQ facilities were found to have links with Al-qaeda. The discovery sent shivers through White house and Pentagon and led to the eventual public confession of Dr Qadeer and Musharaf’s pardon.
For Americans I repeat this represents the most disturbing scenario. The possible radicalization within higher ranks of military and nuclear division hence their immense interest in Pakistan. It’s almost nightmarish for them and fears are sometimes deliberately hyped up our visionary uniformed men too. Outcome; West remains on its toes.
The other reason for US interest is Pakistan’s not doing enough about the final frontier of militancy North Waziristan that is. The place just like Baghdad back in Abbassid era, is a cultural, social, progressive hub for every type of militancy. From central asia to Somalia, all militant envy being in North Waziristan and getting a approval from the likes of Haqqani is an equivalent of Harvard or Stanford degree. Pakistanis still foresee a likely American exit in 2014 and still consider Haqaanis & Gul Bahadurs etc their safest bet to maintain some sort of legitimacy in Afghanistan to counter current Indian infiltration hence the concept of strategic depth. The ‘great’ Mullah Omer is definitely not a Pakistani proxy anymore and speculating his power in a post American Afghanistan, the ‘assets’ in North Waziristan are our only viable option to exercise some sort of influence on Mullah Omer and the so called Quetta Shura. Hence our reservations against attacks in North Waziristan. Now this totally pisses American establishment which practically forces them to use their own channels, personnel in Pakistan to obtain accurate information instead of relying on the most unreliable of all ISI. Obviously CIA’s own credentials are as dubious as ISI so one can never expect a quality transparent working relation between the two and this also pretty much reflects the history of Pak-US ties best described as shady murky based on intense level of suspicion.
British and Tzars in the early 19th started ‘the great game’ of military and political expansion. Only a century later both had lost more than 80% of their territory. Pakistan too is indulged in the great game in Afghanistan despite all its domestic frailties. The eventual outcome, well I leave it to your imagination!!!
Pakistan and USA are B.F.F. Best Frenemies Forever. ( I thought that there would never be a time I would use that corny phrase )
Pakistan’s rentier elite thinks they can get more money out of the americans by playing hardball and if things get out of hand, they can dump them once Gulf mercenary duty and China take up the slack. The US thinks China and the Gulf dont add up to 3 billion a year, so they are also playing hardball. Somebody’s math has gotta give.
My bet is that GHQ will have to stick with BFF CIA and will have to swallow some public humiliation along the way …if they are dumber than I think and do get carried away by their own propaganda, they may lose CIA funding and then find that the Chinese contribution doesnt make up for those lost dollars (those cantonese did not get rich by getting fleeced)…
On the other hand, I have days where I think the Chinese will be taken to the cleaners by ISI before they even know their wallet is missing. The Chinese may be great at business in general, but we have more experience at fleecing our patrons than they have at being patrons…
Meanwhile, the actual country will stumble along, relying on the native good sense and resilience of the people. There IS a real economy out there and its bigger than the rent-an-army operation out of Rawalpindi, but its out of sight of headquarters (for better and for worse).
Well said Kalsoom but where is your tweet button?
The danger to Pakistan is to lose the US to an India-US alliance. That will be the nail in the coffin of Pakistan’s economic development. We Pakistani liberals have to stop playing a loaded game, where *we* play by civilized rules, and *they* (our extremist opponents) mock us by deploying underhanded tactics they think we are incapable of–bombings, assassinations, etc. We need to start acting against extremists, and to do so publicly, coldly, and un-apologetically. And in numbers. We need to spend some of our $$ to save Pakistan, rather than just looting the country and playboy-ing it up in the West. We are all guilty of some of the latter, me too, but let’s rein it in to save Pakistan from defeat where it is led by low-IQ extremists and crushed at the hands of an India-US alliance. Yes, I am a Pakistani secular nationalist.
very well said ! Nice 🙂