This past Friday, news agencies released unconfirmed reports that Baitullah Mehsud was killed in a U.S. air strike in South Waziristan. Come Monday, and the situation is as ambiguous and vague than when the story first developed. Although US National Security Adviser Jim Jones put the level of U.S. certainty that Baitullah Mehsud had been killed in the 90% category over the weekend and Interior Minister Rehman Malik said Monday that two sources confirmed the death of the TTP chief, Taliban militants close to Mehsud continue to deny his death. According to BBC News, his aide, Maulan Nur Syed said Baitullah Mehsud is “gravely ill,” but he “had not been at the house that was attacked by the U.S. missile.”
On Saturday, further confusion developed when reports surfaced that Baitullah’s deputy Hakimullah Mehsud and Waliur Rahman were killed in a dispute over who would succeed the Taliban leader. The situation was further compounded when Hakimullah spoke to news agencies today, saying that both he and Baitullah were alive. He told the AFP, “Rehman Malik is propagating false information in the media – using the media as toy. I am alive and prove I’m alive despite government claims that there was a shootout for Baitullah’s succession.” He added, “Let the interior minister prove he is dead. If the interior minister fails to prove Baitullah Mehsud’s death, then I will produce evidence that he is alive.” The government, meanwhile, insists they will prove Baitullah Mehsud’s death by “using DNA evidence.“
Amid this cloud of ambiguity lies two choice questions:
1. How does the government propose to obtain this DNA evidence? Rehman Malik told BBC’s Urdu service that Pakistani authorities already had the DNA from Mehsud’s brother, who was killed a few months ago, adding the test “could be conducted without exhuming the body.” Now, I’m no forensics expert, but apparently this is pretty difficult to do. If a DNA analysis/match was conducted without exhuming the corpse, authorities would need some of Baitullah’s personal items (toothbrush, comb, etc.) in order to make a conclusive assessment. Given the rough terrain in South Waziristan and that it’s now swarming with angry Taliban/kinsman, any kind of access there seems unlikely. Therefore, a conclusive DNA test may be nearly impossible to achieve unless Mehsud’s corpse magically appears on the ministry’s doorstep.
2. What has this ‘he said she said’ [or, more accurately, he said, he said] situation taught us?
Ultimately, the series of “he’s dead, oh no wait…just kidding” reports undermine the government and its ability to communicate the truth to the media and Pakistani citizens. Bill Roggio at the Long War Journal noted the Pakistani government falsely reported on the deaths of 10 Al Qaeda leaders and eight senior Taliban leaders since 2006. He added, “The Taliban, on the other hand, have been honest about the deaths of their senior leaders. Each time they have refuted a claim of a leader being killed, they have been able to prove the commander is alive.” Groups often release eulogy statements through their communications structure, framing the dead as martyrs in order to incite revenge killings and recruit more fighters.
The death of Baitullah would be a large loss for the Taliban, though. Looking at the situation from the other angle – if he is dead and the shoot-out did occur, the power struggle that many analysts predicted [see my last post] could very well be underway, which could further crumble the Tehreek-e-Taliban’s fragile command. According to Imtiaz Gul in Foreign Policy, “And even if that succession battle proceeds smoothly, the message the lethal drone attack has sent across the ranks of the militants is loud and clear: No group or person challenging the writ of one or many states will go unpunished.”
≈≈≈
Baitullah’s alleged death and surrounding ambiguity makes me highly skeptical of any scenario, no matter how conclusive. But here’s some advice – stop allowing government officials to release conclusions saying how “inconclusive” things are – it just adds to the headache.
Great post kals! and am so taking ur advice!!
wasn’t tht quick ?:P do i get goodies? 😀
Super quick! You are ultra supporter! Shahbash! haha!
Sana Saleem, you do not get kudos for first post. Not here.
This is a respectable blog 😛
I do not understand the whole DNA test thing at all. It’s rediculous. So what if you can prove some strand of DNA left on Baitullah’s pants is his – how does that prove he’s dead? It’s as useful as trying to ascertain whether someone was a catholic from their footprints.
[…] Jones put the level of U.S. certainty that Baitullah Mehsud had been […] Read more at: CHUP! – Changing Up Pakistan afp, ambiguity, bbc, choice questions, dna evidence, false information, forensics, friday […]
[…] a DNA test of what? As Kalsoom Lakhani points out, a military forensics team would need to recover some personal item of […]
Dear kalsoom
i will not comment on what you talked about……………..but its amazing that a female has such level of interest in such a hardcore politics.
keep it up and i do appriciate because if girls are doing well in all fields than why not in political commentry
cheer
Zafar,
While I appreciate the “compliment,” I do have to take issue with your statement – my level of interest or my expertise on a subject should never be applauded because I’m “female,” in fact that entire statement presupposes that politics is not a women’s field, which of course is not true. If you appreciate my work, appreciate it irrespective of my gender. Thanks.
Pretty harsh, Kals ;). (It’s a man’s world out there…just kidding, just kidding).
Okay, I love your blog and Zafar, we’ve had the first Muslim female head of state, female head of parliament, state bank governor, head of unilever…and so on.
COming back to your post, we’re all confused. Is BM dead? And does his death make a difference? Hmmmm….
Nice post. And kudos for the above comment. HAHAHAHAH..
Anyway, the whole baitullah mehsud debacle is confusing. Out of all the times that he and others have been “killed” before, this recent event seems like the most credible. It has created a rise within the Taliban which is telling in and of itself. As we talked about before one possibility is that if he is dead, different factions are spreading misinformation within their own organization to prevent certain leaders from filling the power vacuum that Mehsud has left behind. Another possibility is that he’s wounded and the same power vacuum has been created and until the Taliban figures out the new structure within the organization they don’t want to reveal that it will be filled by somebody new. A severely wounded Commander probably won’t be able to remain in power as movement and being at the front lines is important for the commander. If not at the front lines, mobility is least of what would be expected of a commander.
And then of course if he is alive nothing will change except a bit of embarrassment for the government and the americans who maintain that they “are almost certain” he is dead.
One thing that has been revealed regardless of whether he is alive or dead is that the organization weaknesses within the Taliban have been revealed. It is not a cohesive monolithic movement with strict power structures and structural hierarchy and events like this can make different factions attempt to usurp whatever structure is in place.
Additionally, if he was getting a massage on the “roof” and a conjugal visit with his wife, he must be moving with some ease. The region is not as in control as the government claims. What wartime commander has the luxury of visiting his wife during war? And to be getting a massage on the roof, knowing full and well that American drones are surveilling the region for just this kind of opportunity. Strange.
What comes next for the government and the US if he is in fact killed. How are they going to frame the conflict and how will they proceed in the information war?
they really blew it by jumping the gun on all these death announcements. Who knows what they were trying to accomplish.
Kalsoom, I agree with your advice, however, and I have to question this. If BM is alive this time, why not show himself. Even if he is deathly sick, a picture (of his back ofcourse) could be uploaded to show that he’s alive and kicking. Hidayatullah could himself stand next to BM! Minus such imagination makes me think that he’s a goner for sure this time. The DNA is quite complicated yet extremely conclusive testing and I don’t believe it is a matter of a hair or toe nail etc, rather it is the variety of fluids found at the scene that tell the tale (that is why BB’s crime scene was cleared up so fast). It is a waiting game, nevertheless, and I agree with MSB that the incident has caused an impact upon the Taliban. I would hope that the Pakistani and US Governments would now work towards an amicable future rather than pointing fingers and accusations. We live on one planet and surely there’s space for everyone here.
[…] a DNA test of what? As Kalsoom Lakhani points out, a military forensics team would need to recover some personal item of […]
[…] commanders, finally confirmed the death of Baitullah Mehsud, thus laying the seemingly endless he said-(s)he said statements to rest. The Wall Street Journal cited “reporters who said they recognized the leaders’ […]