A month ago, the Pakistani military began its long-awaited ground offensive into South Waziristan to defeat the Tehreek-e-Taliban. Nearly two weeks ago, Pakistani forces took Sararogha, the reported militants’ capital. On Tuesday, they “escorted” several Western journalists on a restricted tour of the area. According to the NY Times, “militants appear to have been dispersed, not eliminated, with most simply fleeing.” The tour reads similar to a class show-and-tell, with Army officers eager to portray the recent successes as tangible proof that the offensive was running smoothly. Officials displayed piles of items they had seized, “including weapons, bombs, photos and even a long, curly wig.” Al Jazeera also noted that journalists were shown “purported Taliban pamphlets, including one on making bombs, captured ammunition and weapons, and pouched vests that suicide bombers pack with explosives.”
Commander Brig. Muhammed Shafiq told reporters, “It all started from here. This is the most important town in South Waziristan.” The Washington Post, in its coverage, reported,
Once in Sararogha, they [Army] found ample evidence of a Taliban mini-state. A school had been turned into a militia training center and courthouse, with classes in how to manufacture improvised explosives and formal hearings on local disputes. Directives on Taliban letterhead, left scattered in empty rooms, ordered certain mullahs to be given weapons and decreed that no marriage dowry should cost more than $900.
According to Shafiq, the Army faced “stiff resistance” trying to take over Sararogha, which they first attacked by air before sending in ground forces. After facing rocket attacks and artillery from militants in the surrounding hills, the military finally prevailed after a five-day battle, capturing the town. According to military spokesman Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas, the military has reportedly taken 50 percent of Mehsud territory, “including most major towns and roads.” Abbas noted the Army “would soon begin to press into villages where militants were hiding.” Brig. Farrukh Jamal, at nearby Laddha, was quoted by Al Jazeera as saying, “They are hiding in caves and we will capture them soon or kill them.” [As expected, a Taliban spokesman who spoke to Dawn Wednesday denied the military’s claim, saying they had merely vacated the area and would retake it later.]
As always, these successes are tainted by the underlying truth – that this war is not going to be over any time soon. In the COIN mantra of clear, hold, and build, clearing has never been the Pakistani Army’s problem – it’s been how to hold onto these areas and ensure the Taliban does not return in their absence. The NY Times quoted Talat Masood, who asserted, “Are they really winning the people — this is the big question. They have weakened the Taliban tactically, but have they really won the area if the people are not with them?” In the case of Sararogha, the 10,000 person town was completely deserted, meaning there were essentially no people to win over. Moreover, given the lack of services provided to the displaced families from the area, it may be hard for the people to trust anyone upon their return, let alone the state. Also, noted the Times, “Finding a reliable local partner will be difficult,” given that militants “have altered its social structure, killing hundreds of tribal elders and making it hard for the military to negotiate.”
In the meantime, terrorist attacks continue to strike the rest of the country, particularly Peshawar, which has been heavily hit in the past few weeks. A suicide attack outside a judicial complex on Thursday killed 16 people and wounded 36, reported Dawn News.
On a lighter note, the NY Times At War blog posted some really interesting photos reportedly confiscated from homes during the offensive. Taken with “inexpensive automatic cameras,” the photos almost seem like a Taliban-esque fashion show, with militants brandishing rocket launchers with avant garde abandon. Without further ado, I give you Taliban Fashion Week:
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Nice piece kals. I love the Taliban fashion… their pants/shalwars are hiked up so high looks like they are anxiously waiting for a flood.
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I just went to an interesting Afghanistan/Pakistan seminar, where Imtiaz Ali, a Pakistani journalist and Fellow at the U.S. Institute of Peace spoke. He actually made a really interesting reference regarding the Pakistani government’s treatment of FATA, calling it the “Stepmother Complex” – it made me think of FATA like a forgotten Cinderella. In all seriousness, it was an apt point because government after government have never brought FATA into the fold, which is one reason why it’s so difficult to “hold” today – the ppl in the area really have no affiliation whatsoever to the rest of the nation, esp. since there are such a lack of services and economic empowerment (Imtiaz mentioned that there is one doctor for every 8,000 people).
If the Taliban do retake the cleared towns; nobody will want to return there. I recently read that the people of South Warziristan will then begin to move into the larger cities and the Pakistani authorities do not want that. Is this true? If it is, then to keep the IDPs in camps is going to be even tougher.
Taliban occupy towns/areas in South Warziristan.
People leave these towns for camps (IDPs).
Pakistan forces clear towns.
Taliban (suicide) bomb within major cities.
Pakistan govt wants IDPs to return to towns therefore clear the camps.
IDPs reluctantly return to towns because there is nothing left there and the Taliban WILL return. Govt needs to provide services to guard against Taliban return.
Taliban do re-occupy the towns.
Pakistan forces go in again to clear the Taliban.
Taliban continue to (suicide) bomb within major cities.
As far as Karachi is concerned, the city authorities do not want that. That is fairly clear as has been proven during the Swat offensive. The city is already not able to care for its population and lacks the resources, and furthermore it fears the infiltration of militants. And their is also a racist, ethnic aspect to it. I think Lahore and and Islamabad/Rawalpindi probably doesn’t want to care for these displaced people either. It’s rather unfortunate. I mean who wants to go back to a war-ravaged place like that where the Taliban could come back at anytime. People have left their life savings in Waziristan and just escaped, knowing that their investments will not exist when they return. What incentive do they have to return? The government is failing to give them an incentive because it cannot even convince the people of Waziristan that they will have a viable state structure to go back to. And many will go back because they have no choice. Many will languish in camps and makeshift homes in big cities. And the cycle will continue as you illustrated above. The strategy is not clear at all on the governments part as to how they are going to manage the people they and the Taliban have displaced.
Did Imtiaz get into why it hasn’t been brought into the fold? There are many reasons as to why it hasn’t been brought into the fold including government negligence, misconceptions and resistance from the indigenous people of the area. It’s a lengthy conversations so I’m being pithy about it.
Lack of services and economic empowerment is part of the equation but there are so many parts of pakistan, probably the majority, which aren’t empowered like that but they are not autonomous. There is a fierce movement and cultural separation from Pakistan in the area, and unless they are willing to give an inch they can’t be given a mile. Nonetheless, it is mostly government negligence, but the people also have to be willing to give up some of their autonomy if they want to receive benefits from taxpaying pakistanis. I mean you can’t expect to work outside the bounds of a central judicial control, with your own tribal system, and then expect the government to set up institutions for you. Or you could, but the Pakistani government is neither so generous nor so rich and responsibly run. They have to be brought into the central judicial system first and foremost before there can be any central government progress there, and that means giving up a large portion of their tribal rules and lifestyle. And on the other hand, the Pakistani government has to prove to them that its judicial system CAN provide them justice, and that is the hardest part. Basically it is a cinderella, but the cinderella also has to be willing to make some concession in order to allow itself to be brought into the fold. The initiative starts with the government providing them with an alternative choice, which it is failing to do.
Whenever I read comments of people regarding Taliban, I sense a deep despair in their writings – thats exactly wanted by the militants (we call Taliban – which is incorrect). But there is one thing good about it – people are expressing themselves and someday those at helms of affair will start to listen too.
Just today, I attended a funeral of a captain who fell during fighting in Waziristan – a young lad in 20s. We are paying a price in terms of red blood while our politicians are only worrying about NRO (as soon after issuance of NRO beneficiaries, there are interviews after interviews with claims of innocence).
Please read the last of my today’s post at:
http://jahojalal.blogspot.com/2009/11/last-salute-to-soldier.html
This is exactly what our politicians are doing. Let us continue to rise our voice so that they also realize that there are issues also.
I wonder if these photos were really captured from Taliban or they are taken randomly from here and there and dubbed as Talibans by our friends at NYTimes. We are all aware of how the journalists of few of the famous newspapers tried to make up such stories and were caught by our security agencies.
I am even concerned that few of my own pictures holding different guns might be dubbed as Taliban member on a fashion show.
In fact, being a pashtun, weapons are part of our culture. The irony is that our own well educated bloggers and journalists will leave no stone unturned to follow the imported lines of NY Times to further malign our own country.